Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by December 31, 2026?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 97¢ · $5K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
2
No 100%
$4.5K
$37.41
96¢ → 96.7¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 cat-dog | Noavg 95.6¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | +$29.35 | 76% 96-31 (127) |
 OraculumNobius | Noavg 96.5¢ | $2.4K | $2.2K | +$8.07 | 90% 5398-610 (6008) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.