Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 76¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes25¢No75¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$566.5

Smart Money Entry

49.2¢ → 75.5¢

+53% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes25%

No76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,825

Combined PnL+$702.65

Yes2 traders

Total Value$182.7

Total Shares630

Combined PnL-$136.15

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

657h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JO JoeBlack01	Noavg 42.2¢	$689.88	$1.4K	+$750.15	60% 466-309 (775)
AJ AJSVARB<$100	Yesavg 55.6¢	$871.17	$750.09	-$68.85	36% 13223-23096 (36319)
└ No leg	Noavg 40¢	$285.48	$470.74	+$190.47
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 55.6¢	$535.72	$279.34	-$259.32
NiceDuckBro	Noavg 72.8¢	$508.19	$424.68	-$47.5	64% 311-172 (483)
randomWalkingShrimpCTR	Yesavg 42.7¢	$200.7	$153.7	-$118.15	77% 1189-362 (1551)
Donny.TCTR<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$50	$29	-$18	72% 466-178 (644)

JoeBlack01

Invested

$689.88

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$750.15

Record

60%

466-309 (775)

AJSVARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$871.17

Value

$750.09

PnL

-$68.85

Record

36%

13223-23096 (36319)

Both legs:

No$285.4840¢+$190.47

Yes$535.7255.6¢-$259.32

NiceDuckBro

Invested

$508.19

Value

$424.68

PnL

-$47.5

Record

64%

311-172 (483)

randomWalkingShrimpCTR

Yes

Invested

$200.7

Value

$153.7

PnL

-$118.15

Record

77%

1189-362 (1551)

Donny.TCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$50

Value

$29

PnL

-$18

Record

72%

466-178 (644)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

657h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.5%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.