Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026?
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 92¢ · $4K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 33%
$4.4K
$205.09
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KR KrackenSruster | Noavg 80.3¢ | $4.0K | $4.3K | +$519.01 | 65% 480-253 (733) |
 NiceDuckBroCTR | Yesavg 30.8¢ | $347 | $90 | -$257 | 65% 322-174 (496) |
 randomWalkingShrimpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23.4¢ | $79.64 | $22.73 | -$56.92 | 77% 1196-364 (1560) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.