Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by December 31, 2026?
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 97¢ · $6K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 33%
$5.9K
-$46.19
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KR KrackenSruster | Noavg 78.5¢ | $4.7K | $5.8K | +$1.1K | 65% 480-253 (733) |
BI bipbipbopCTR | Yesavg 25.1¢ | $1.1K | $118.73 | $-1.0K | 64% 2318-1306 (3624) |
 DumplingBMFCTR | Yesavg 14.8¢ | $194.52 | $35.42 | -$159.1 | 68% 1791-827 (2618) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.