Will Rodri finish in the top 2 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
$1.6K
-$23.48
99.8¢ → 97.5¢
-2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x26b166604677eaef5f2e81b716f539ed2857cc81 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $628.07 | $613.3 | -$14.77 | 54% 272-230 (502) |
ZX zxc368 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $527.41 | $515.69 | -$5.11 | 99% 12422-177 (12599) |
0X 0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907e | Noavg 99.6¢ | $449.79 | $444.39 | -$3.6 | 82% 226-50 (276) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.