Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (71%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Rodri finish 4th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 29¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
No
4
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$2.6K
$171.57
30.5¢ → 29¢
-5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 29%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 TimeTravelerCTR | Noavg 30.6¢ | $2.2K | $2.1K | +$161.78 | 41% 1918-2712 (4630) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Yesavg 65.1¢ | $303.23 | $290.74 | -$8.96 | 40% 271-401 (672) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 65.1¢ | $191.69 | $197.28 | +$4.97 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 36.4¢ | $107.19 | $93.47 | -$13.92 | |
BO borntoolate.eth | Yesavg 67¢ | $117.92 | $117.92 | +$0 | 75% 305-103 (408) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 28.4¢ | $67.3 | $75.29 | +$8 | 62% 19399-11989 (31388) |
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100 | Noavg 28.8¢ | $17.57 | $19.36 | +$1.79 | 56% 300-232 (532) |
TimeTravelerCTRInvested
$2,202.04
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$161.78
Record
41%
1918-2712 (4630)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$303.23
Value
$290.74
PnL
-$8.96
Record
40%
271-401 (672)
Both legs:
Invested
$117.92
Value
$117.92
PnL
+$0
Record
75%
305-103 (408)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$67.3
Value
$75.29
PnL
+$8
Record
62%
19399-11989 (31388)
Invested
$17.57
Value
$19.36
PnL
+$1.79
Record
56%
300-232 (532)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
29.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.