Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (96%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Rodri finish 3rd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 4.3¢ · $775 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$775.03

Combined PnL

$190.07

Smart Money Entry

4.5¢ → 4.3¢

-4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$775.03

Total Shares21,335

Combined PnL+$190.07

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazarCTR	Yesavg 4.5¢	$31.27	$723.42	+$175.49	62% 19931-12391 (32322)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR	Yesavg 4.5¢	$33.76	$42.66	+$8.89	32% 4202-8830 (13032)
LE leegunnerCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.7¢	$2.29	$6.29	+$4	44% 1230-1538 (2768)
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$0.99	$2.67	+$1.67	56% 302-233 (535)

balthazarCTR

Yes

Invested

$31.27

Value

$723.42

PnL

+$175.49

Record

62%

19931-12391 (32322)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR

Yes

Invested

$33.76

Value

$42.66

PnL

+$8.89

Record

32%

4202-8830 (13032)

leegunnerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.29

Value

$6.29

PnL

+$4

Record

44%

1230-1538 (2768)

0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.99

Value

$2.67

PnL

+$1.67

Record

56%

302-233 (535)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance5.6%

4.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1701.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

1801.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.