Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Rodri finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.7¢ · $45 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 100%
$45.36
$8.42
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $18.73 | $24.01 | -$3.66 | 33% 2493-5058 (7551) |
P1 P1kasoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $2.02 | $14.14 | +$12.14 | 64% 692-395 (1087) |
 TimeTravelerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $7.08 | $7.14 | +$0.06 | 41% 1897-2678 (4575) |
 Rex416CTR<$100 | Yes | $0.07 | $0.07 | -$0.12 | 57% 2349-1749 (4098) |
Invested
$18.73
Value
$24.01
PnL
-$3.66
Record
33%
2493-5058 (7551)
Invested
$2.02
Value
$14.14
PnL
+$12.14
Record
64%
692-395 (1087)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100Invested
$7.08
Value
$7.14
PnL
+$0.06
Record
41%
1897-2678 (4575)
Rex416CTR<$100Invested
$0.07
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$0.12
Record
57%
2349-1749 (4098)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.