Will Rodri attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 1

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$9.04

Smart Money Entry

98.4¢ → 100¢

+2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares1,658

Combined PnL+$6.95

No1 trader

Total Value$7.93

Total Shares206

Combined PnL+$2.09

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Late

223h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PK pkz	Yesavg 99.8¢	$886.08	$887.38	+$1.29	57% 452-345 (797)
NO nonkenny90	Yesavg 97.4¢	$672.08	$688.65	+$0.67	89% 4510-539 (5049)
KimchiCapital<$100	Yesavg 91.7¢	$64.2	$69.86	+$4.05	76% 479-154 (633)
Car<$100	Yesavg 87.6¢	$9.05	$9.98	+$0.93	67% 4118-1993 (6111)
viniiCTR<$100	Noavg 10.6¢	$5.84	$7.93	+$2.09	73% 2617-957 (3574)

pkz

Yes

Invested

$886.08

Value

$887.38

PnL

+$1.29

Record

57%

452-345 (797)

nonkenny90

Yes

Invested

$672.08

Value

$688.65

PnL

+$0.67

Record

89%

4510-539 (5049)

KimchiCapital<$100

Yes

Invested

$64.2

Value

$69.86

PnL

+$4.05

Record

76%

479-154 (633)

Car<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.05

Value

$9.98

PnL

+$0.93

Record

67%

4118-1993 (6111)

viniiCTR<$100

Invested

$5.84

Value

$7.93

PnL

+$2.09

Record

73%

2617-957 (3574)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Late

223h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.