Will Robert Ritz win the 2026 Stratford mayoral election?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 68¢ · $992 held · ends Oct 27

Yes68¢No32¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$992.41

Combined PnL

$437.97

Smart Money Entry

37.8¢ → 68.3¢

+80% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 68%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes68%

No32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$930.78

Total Shares1,205

Combined PnL+$467.5

No3 traders

Total Value$61.62

Total Shares260

Combined PnL-$29.54

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
mrworldwide	Yesavg 30.7¢	$308.85	$768.3	+$459.45	69% 761-349 (1110)
ZX zxc368	Yesavg 99.5¢	$131.03	$130.75	-$0.28	99% 12524-178 (12702)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 56.3¢	$90.06	$37.92	-$52.14	62% 20216-12621 (32837)
Relaccsed<$100	Yesavg 24.2¢	$16.02	$31.73	+$8.33	56% 1176-940 (2116)
ME merodCTR<$100	Noavg 1.1¢	$1.09	$23.46	+$22.37	52% 2372-2159 (4531)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Noavg 1.1¢	$0.01	$0.24	+$0.23	52% 4817-4360 (9177)

mrworldwide

Yes

Invested

$308.85

Value

$768.3

PnL

+$459.45

Record

69%

761-349 (1110)

zxc368

Yes

Invested

$131.03

Value

$130.75

PnL

-$0.28

Record

99%

12524-178 (12702)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$90.06

Value

$37.92

PnL

-$52.14

Record

62%

20216-12621 (32837)

Relaccsed<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.02

Value

$31.73

PnL

+$8.33

Record

56%

1176-940 (2116)

merodCTR<$100

Invested

$1.09

Value

$23.46

PnL

+$22.37

Record

52%

2372-2159 (4531)

korda77CTR<$100

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.24

PnL

+$0.23

Record

52%

4817-4360 (9177)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 68%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.2%

68.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$42.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

142.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.