Will Riyadh airport reopen (50+ departures) by October 31?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 72¢ · $911 held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 25%
1 arb excluded
$910.73
-$26.31
Research grade
NeutralNo at 72%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AR Arman2 | Noavg 61.3¢ | $403.96 | $420.86 | +$16.9 | 57% 308-233 (541) |
AJ AJSVARB<$100 | Yesavg 52.8¢ | $421.36 | $379.35 | -$2.02 | 36% 13969-24716 (38685) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 33.8¢ | $108.99 | $232.19 | +$129.68 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 52.8¢ | $277.72 | $147.16 | -$131.7 | |
HU HuludubuCTR<$100 | Yesavg 68¢ | $99.96 | $79.38 | -$27.93 | 64% 1240-698 (1938) |
 Trading4FridgeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 56.5¢ | $26.73 | $25.55 | -$13.48 | 59% 918-646 (1564) |
ME melonmanmCTR<$100 | Yesavg 37¢ | $7.4 | $5.6 | -$1.8 | 65% 477-257 (734) |
Invested
$403.96
Value
$420.86
PnL
+$16.9
Record
57%
308-233 (541)
Invested
$421.36
Value
$379.35
PnL
-$2.02
Record
36%
13969-24716 (38685)
Both legs:
Invested
$99.96
Value
$79.38
PnL
-$27.93
Record
64%
1240-698 (1938)
Trading4FridgeCTR<$100Invested
$26.73
Value
$25.55
PnL
-$13.48
Record
59%
918-646 (1564)
Invested
$7.4
Value
$5.6
PnL
-$1.8
Record
65%
477-257 (734)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.