Will Ricardo Samaniego win the 2026 El Paso County Judge election?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 99¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 4

Yes99¢No1¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$4.6K

Combined PnL

$405.35

Smart Money Entry

89.9¢ → 98.8¢

+10% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares4,721

Combined PnL+$417.33

No1 trader

Total Value$13.66

Total Shares1,093

Combined PnL-$11.98

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nicoco89	Yesavg 88.2¢	$3.1K	$3.5K	+$375.69	65% 1074-579 (1653)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Yesavg 95.4¢	$495.1	$499.71	+$16.62	77% 10791-3277 (14068)
AB ABC12345654321	Yesavg 95.1¢	$330.44	$343.21	+$12.78	51% 1622-1583 (3205)
EsperanzasDESTROYER	Yesavg 94.7¢	$284	$291.75	+$12.25	53% 39-34 (73)
SI singularitymanCTR<$100	Noavg 2.3¢	$25.64	$13.66	-$11.98	42% 137-191 (328)

nicoco89

Yes

Invested

$3,085.7

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$375.69

Record

65%

1074-579 (1653)

Elias.Thornwell

Yes

Invested

$495.1

Value

$499.71

PnL

+$16.62

Record

77%

10791-3277 (14068)

ABC12345654321

Yes

Invested

$330.44

Value

$343.21

PnL

+$12.78

Record

51%

1622-1583 (3205)

EsperanzasDESTROYER

Yes

Invested

$284

Value

$291.75

PnL

+$12.25

Record

53%

39-34 (73)

singularitymanCTR<$100

Invested

$25.64

Value

$13.66

PnL

-$11.98

Record

42%

137-191 (328)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.8%

98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.