Will Republicans win 4 Senate and Governor elections in states won by Kamala?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 88¢ · $285 held · ends Nov 4

Yes12¢No88¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$285

Combined PnL

-$6.97

Smart Money Entry

92.9¢ → 88.2¢

-5% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$264.46

Total Shares288

Combined PnL-$15.56

Yes2 traders

Total Value$20.24

Total Shares132

Combined PnL+$8.6

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 97¢	$193.39	$168.77	-$24.62	63% 16296-9616 (25912)
AJ AJSV<$100	Noavg 80.9¢	$74.89	$83.85	+$10.93	36% 13723-24173 (37896)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.7¢	$9.85	$15.64	+$5.79	33% 3273-6508 (9781)
BI Bigggggggg<$100	Noavg 98¢	$13.72	$11.85	-$1.87	47% 2449-2762 (5211)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$1.8	$4.6	+$2.8	46% 1643-1956 (3599)

balthazar

Invested

$193.39

Value

$168.77

PnL

-$24.62

Record

63%

16296-9616 (25912)

AJSV<$100

Invested

$74.89

Value

$83.85

PnL

+$10.93

Record

36%

13723-24173 (37896)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.85

Value

$15.64

PnL

+$5.79

Record

33%

3273-6508 (9781)

Bigggggggg<$100

Invested

$13.72

Value

$11.85

PnL

-$1.87

Record

47%

2449-2762 (5211)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.8

Value

$4.6

PnL

+$2.8

Record

46%

1643-1956 (3599)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.6%

88.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.63

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.