Will Republicans win 2 Senate and Governor elections in states won by Kamala?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 57¢ · $703 held · ends Nov 4

Yes43¢No57¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$703

Combined PnL

$28.72

Smart Money Entry

56.3¢ → 57.5¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 57%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes43%

No57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$641.06

Total Shares805

Combined PnL+$37.4

Yes3 traders

Total Value$62.04

Total Shares163

Combined PnL-$8.69

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AJ AJSV	Noavg 59.1¢	$682.95	$511.86	+$9.41	36% 13723-24173 (37896)
balthazar	Noavg 48.1¢	$93.5	$120.52	+$27.02	63% 16296-9616 (25912)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 39.4¢	$39.72	$38.33	-$1.4	33% 3273-6508 (9781)
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100	Yesavg 48¢	$29.95	$21.81	-$7.14	36% 1955-3427 (5382)
BI Bigggggggg<$100	Noavg 55¢	$7.7	$8.68	+$0.98	47% 2449-2762 (5211)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 41¢	$2.05	$1.9	-$0.15	46% 1643-1956 (3599)

AJSV

Invested

$682.95

Value

$511.86

PnL

+$9.41

Record

36%

13723-24173 (37896)

balthazar

Invested

$93.5

Value

$120.52

PnL

+$27.02

Record

63%

16296-9616 (25912)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.72

Value

$38.33

PnL

-$1.4

Record

33%

3273-6508 (9781)

HerrieDavisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.95

Value

$21.81

PnL

-$7.14

Record

36%

1955-3427 (5382)

Bigggggggg<$100

Invested

$7.7

Value

$8.68

PnL

+$0.98

Record

47%

2449-2762 (5211)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.05

Value

$1.9

PnL

-$0.15

Record

46%

1643-1956 (3599)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 57%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.5%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$68.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

168.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.