Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 82¢ · $1K held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 40%
$1.3K
$21.62
66.5¢ → 82¢
+23% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 82%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 FrozenParasite | Yesavg 53.8¢ | $416.06 | $630.79 | +$214.73 | 55% 436-354 (790) |
 archaic | Yesavg 84.5¢ | $457.96 | $444.31 | -$13.65 | 85% 1851-336 (2187) |
LI linethCTR | Noavg 36¢ | $270.39 | $138.95 | -$131.44 | 41% 240-349 (589) |
RO roscoffCTR<$100 | Noavg 39.9¢ | $87.84 | $40.72 | -$48.22 | 54% 158-132 (290) |
GA GaditimaCTR<$100 | Noavg 18.3¢ | $23.85 | $24.05 | +$0.2 | — |
FrozenParasiteInvested
$416.06
Value
$630.79
PnL
+$214.73
Record
55%
436-354 (790)
archaicInvested
$457.96
Value
$444.31
PnL
-$13.65
Record
85%
1851-336 (2187)
Invested
$270.39
Value
$138.95
PnL
-$131.44
Record
41%
240-349 (589)
Invested
$87.84
Value
$40.72
PnL
-$48.22
Record
54%
158-132 (290)
Invested
$23.85
Value
$24.05
PnL
+$0.2
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.