Will Radomir Saičić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 90¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 20%
$1.3K
$102.29
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
61h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 89.4¢ | $2.4K | $1.2K | +$81.45 | 54% 4556-3891 (8447) |
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100 | Yes | $45.6 | $45.6 | -$0.11 | 6% 12-173 (185) |
HO HourglassCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.9¢ | $3.77 | $20.4 | +$16.63 | 78% 8450-2389 (10839) |
RO rocky42019CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.5¢ | $1.05 | $6.39 | +$1.16 | 42% 1535-2102 (3637) |
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.6¢ | $0.61 | $3.77 | +$3.17 | 52% 224-208 (432) |
Invested
$2,363.85
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$81.45
Record
54%
4556-3891 (8447)
Invested
$45.6
Value
$45.6
PnL
-$0.11
Record
6%
12-173 (185)
Invested
$3.77
Value
$20.4
PnL
+$16.63
Record
78%
8450-2389 (10839)
Invested
$1.05
Value
$6.39
PnL
+$1.16
Record
42%
1535-2102 (3637)
Invested
$0.61
Value
$3.77
PnL
+$3.17
Record
52%
224-208 (432)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.