Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Switzerland?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 97¢ · $539 held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$539
-$5.69
99.4¢ → 97.3¢
-2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12 123987456 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $280.13 | $276.33 | -$3.8 | 46% 1643-1956 (3599) |
AL alex20011 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $112.03 | $110.51 | -$1.52 | 48% 3101-3334 (6435) |
BI Bigggggggg<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $75.85 | $74.82 | -$1.03 | 47% 2449-2762 (5211) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $69.5 | $68.42 | -$1.08 | 63% 16296-9616 (25912) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $5 | $4.93 | -$0.07 | 56% 10997-8571 (19568) |
AJ AJSVCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $2.42 | $3.8 | +$1.38 | 36% 13723-24173 (37896) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $0.11 | $0.54 | +$0.43 | 18% 3414-15601 (19015) |
Invested
$280.13
Value
$276.33
PnL
-$3.8
Record
46%
1643-1956 (3599)
Invested
$112.03
Value
$110.51
PnL
-$1.52
Record
48%
3101-3334 (6435)
Invested
$75.85
Value
$74.82
PnL
-$1.03
Record
47%
2449-2762 (5211)
balthazar<$100Invested
$69.5
Value
$68.42
PnL
-$1.08
Record
63%
16296-9616 (25912)
Invested
$5
Value
$4.93
PnL
-$0.07
Record
56%
10997-8571 (19568)
Invested
$2.42
Value
$3.8
PnL
+$1.38
Record
36%
13723-24173 (37896)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$0.11
Value
$0.54
PnL
+$0.43
Record
18%
3414-15601 (19015)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.