Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Germany?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 99¢ · $543 held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$543.11

Combined PnL

$7.84

Smart Money Entry

97.8¢ → 99.1¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$542.62

Total Shares545

Combined PnL+$9.83

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.48

Total Shares107

Combined PnL-$1.99

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
12 123987456	Noavg 97.5¢	$279.01	$285.01	+$6	46% 1643-1956 (3599)
AL alex20011	Noavg 97.5¢	$109.89	$112.2	+$2.31	48% 3101-3334 (6435)
BI Bigggggggg<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$74.39	$75.97	+$1.57	47% 2449-2762 (5211)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$69.5	$69.44	-$0.06	63% 16296-9616 (25912)
AJ AJSVCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$2.48	$0.48	-$1.99	36% 13723-24173 (37896)

123987456

Invested

$279.01

Value

$285.01

PnL

+$6

Record

46%

1643-1956 (3599)

alex20011

Invested

$109.89

Value

$112.2

PnL

+$2.31

Record

48%

3101-3334 (6435)

Bigggggggg<$100

Invested

$74.39

Value

$75.97

PnL

+$1.57

Record

47%

2449-2762 (5211)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$69.5

Value

$69.44

PnL

-$0.06

Record

63%

16296-9616 (25912)

AJSVCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.48

Value

$0.48

PnL

-$1.99

Record

36%

13723-24173 (37896)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.