Will Pump.fun reach $0.0080 by December 31, 2026?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 72¢ · $526 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$526.41
-$6.37
83.4¢ → 71.5¢
-14% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 72%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Late
4403h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AJ AJSVARB<$100 | Noavg 72.9¢ | $832.11 | $359.3 | -$27.26 | 36% 13446-23443 (36889) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 72.9¢ | $262.59 | $244.95 | -$118.5 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 26.6¢ | $121.68 | $114.34 | +$91.24 | |
 XieGuangKun | Noavg 86.9¢ | $126.32 | $95.43 | -$33.45 | 51% 364-348 (712) |
 alanhutton<$100 | Noavg 75.8¢ | $39.36 | $40.8 | +$1.44 | 69% 301-134 (435) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $3.27 | $16.35 | +$26.82 | 18% 3341-15435 (18776) |
LA Lasting-Dessert<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $17.31 | $14.53 | -$1.18 | 90% 562-65 (627) |
Invested
$832.11
Value
$359.3
PnL
-$27.26
Record
36%
13446-23443 (36889)
Both legs:
XieGuangKunInvested
$126.32
Value
$95.43
PnL
-$33.45
Record
51%
364-348 (712)
alanhutton<$100Invested
$39.36
Value
$40.8
PnL
+$1.44
Record
69%
301-134 (435)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$3.27
Value
$16.35
PnL
+$26.82
Record
18%
3341-15435 (18776)
Invested
$17.31
Value
$14.53
PnL
-$1.18
Record
90%
562-65 (627)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.4¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.