Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (97%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 30, 2026?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 3.4¢ · $752 held · ends Dec 1

Yes97¢No3¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$751.85

Combined PnL

-$211.64

Smart Money Entry

18.8¢ → 3.4¢

-82% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 97%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes97%

No3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$397.42

Total Shares476

Combined PnL-$0.86

No4 traders

Total Value$354.43

Total Shares3,868

Combined PnL-$210.78

Yes — 20%No — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JI jiafan	Yesavg 96.3¢	$398.28	$397.42	-$0.86	60% 1428-967 (2395)
AJ AJSVCTR	Noavg 23.9¢	$476.51	$226.05	+$60.87	36% 13969-24716 (38685)
yen4uCTR	Noavg 14.3¢	$185.43	$53.88	-$131.55	84% 668-126 (794)
TR troimCTR	Noavg 21¢	$210	$41.5	-$168.5	36% 379-669 (1048)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 2.3¢	$4.6	$33	+$28.4	62% 18410-11080 (29490)

jiafan

Yes

Invested

$398.28

Value

$397.42

PnL

-$0.86

Record

60%

1428-967 (2395)

AJSVCTR

Invested

$476.51

Value

$226.05

PnL

+$60.87

Record

36%

13969-24716 (38685)

yen4uCTR

Invested

$185.43

Value

$53.88

PnL

-$131.55

Record

84%

668-126 (794)

troimCTR

Invested

$210

Value

$41.5

PnL

-$168.5

Record

36%

379-669 (1048)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$4.6

Value

$33

PnL

+$28.4

Record

62%

18410-11080 (29490)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 97%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance4.7%

3.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2030.18

Max Loss

-$100.00

2130.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.