Will Plasma reach $0.24 by December 31, 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 77¢ · $503 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$502.59
$264.79
39.6¢ → 77¢
+95% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 77%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 XieGuangKun | Noavg 26¢ | $79.3 | $232.34 | +$154.21 | 51% 365-348 (713) |
AJ AJSVCTR | Yesavg 23.9¢ | $130.46 | $111.17 | +$75.09 | 36% 13969-24716 (38685) |
 alanhutton | Noavg 86.3¢ | $103.6 | $91.8 | -$11.8 | 69% 308-136 (444) |
LA Lasting-Dessert<$100 | Noavg 22¢ | $18.75 | $65.2 | +$46.45 | 90% 563-66 (629) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14¢ | $1.24 | $2.08 | +$0.84 | 18% 3644-16107 (19751) |
XieGuangKunInvested
$79.3
Value
$232.34
PnL
+$154.21
Record
51%
365-348 (713)
Invested
$130.46
Value
$111.17
PnL
+$75.09
Record
36%
13969-24716 (38685)
alanhuttonInvested
$103.6
Value
$91.8
PnL
-$11.8
Record
69%
308-136 (444)
Invested
$18.75
Value
$65.2
PnL
+$46.45
Record
90%
563-66 (629)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$1.24
Value
$2.08
PnL
+$0.84
Record
18%
3644-16107 (19751)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.