Will Petr Hlaváček be the next Mayor of Prague?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 94¢ · $486 held · ended Oct 10

Yes94¢No6¢Ended Sat, Oct 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$486.14

Combined PnL

-$255.2

Smart Money Entry

84.3¢ → 93.5¢

+11% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 94%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes94%

No7%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$451.02

Total Shares485

Combined PnL+$42.45

No3 traders

Total Value$35.12

Total Shares468

Combined PnL-$297.65

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-60 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

569h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (3 on Yes) disagree here.

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SC Scalpoor	Yesavg 93¢	$399.22	$399.22	+$0	82% 27-6 (33)
HE HerrieDavis<$100	Yesavg 16.8¢	$9.35	$51.8	+$42.45	37% 1928-3336 (5264)
StarMasterCTR	Noavg 62.6¢	$157.76	$18.75	-$139.01	53% 1779-1573 (3352)
paddaaCTR	Noavg 80.8¢	$174.89	$16.24	-$158.65	57% 797-607 (1404)
YO YouSayUpISayDownCTR<$100	Noavg 7¢	$0.12	$0.13	+$0.01	62% 1716-1030 (2746)

Scalpoor

Yes

Invested

$399.22

Value

$399.22

PnL

+$0

Record

82%

27-6 (33)

HerrieDavis<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.35

Value

$51.8

PnL

+$42.45

Record

37%

1928-3336 (5264)

StarMasterCTR

Invested

$157.76

Value

$18.75

PnL

-$139.01

Record

53%

1779-1573 (3352)

paddaaCTR

Invested

$174.89

Value

$16.24

PnL

-$158.65

Record

57%

797-607 (1404)

YouSayUpISayDownCTR<$100

Invested

$0.12

Value

$0.13

PnL

+$0.01

Record

62%

1716-1030 (2746)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 94%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-60 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

569h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (3 on Yes) disagree here.

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.7%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.