Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (76%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Peter Obi win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (20%) · Yes at 24¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 17, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 20%
$1.9K
-$78.49
Research grade
AvoidYes at 24%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors No 76%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
2046h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
36 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RememberAmalekCTR | Yesavg 26.3¢ | $1.6K | $1.5K | -$141.42 | 56% 953-753 (1706) |
SI singularityman | Noavg 63.4¢ | $317.53 | $380.42 | +$62.89 | 42% 136-190 (326) |
 sciuboi<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $9.46 | $9.11 | -$0.36 | 47% 183-208 (391) |
 UbuntuTrading<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $4.27 | $4.32 | +$0.06 | 58% 3006-2194 (5200) |
BA balerinacapuchina<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $1.43 | $1.78 | +$0.35 | 73% 172-65 (237) |
RememberAmalekCTRInvested
$1,638.63
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$141.42
Record
56%
953-753 (1706)
Invested
$317.53
Value
$380.42
PnL
+$62.89
Record
42%
136-190 (326)
sciuboi<$100Invested
$9.46
Value
$9.11
PnL
-$0.36
Record
47%
183-208 (391)
UbuntuTrading<$100Invested
$4.27
Value
$4.32
PnL
+$0.06
Record
58%
3006-2194 (5200)
Invested
$1.43
Value
$1.78
PnL
+$0.35
Record
73%
172-65 (237)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
24.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.