Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or Men's Young Talent of the Year award?

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 10

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 83%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

-$198.98

Smart Money Entry

95¢ → 100¢

+5% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,305

Combined PnL-$57.77

Yes1 trader

Total Value$285.62

Total Shares2,380

Combined PnL-$141.21

No — 83%Yes — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Car	Noavg 99.9¢	$775.22	$775.61	+$0.39	67% 4118-1993 (6111)
balthazar	Noavg 95.3¢	$496.46	$458.28	-$38.18	62% 19931-12391 (32322)
ZX zxc368	Noavg 99.9¢	$495.37	$436.37	-$59.01	99% 12306-175 (12481)
0X 0xbf2342fds234423dCTR	Yesavg 17.9¢	$426.83	$285.62	-$141.21	52% 624-586 (1210)
crypto-basenji	Noavg 84.2¢	$252.56	$263.99	+$18.93	40% 157-240 (397)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 80.6¢	$341.88	$186.88	+$20.1	53% 6100-5351 (11451)

Car

Invested

$775.22

Value

$775.61

PnL

+$0.39

Record

67%

4118-1993 (6111)

balthazar

Invested

$496.46

Value

$458.28

PnL

-$38.18

Record

62%

19931-12391 (32322)

zxc368

Invested

$495.37

Value

$436.37

PnL

-$59.01

Record

99%

12306-175 (12481)

0xbf2342fds234423dCTR

Yes

Invested

$426.83

Value

$285.62

PnL

-$141.21

Record

52%

624-586 (1210)

crypto-basenji

Invested

$252.56

Value

$263.99

PnL

+$18.93

Record

40%

157-240 (397)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$341.88

Value

$186.88

PnL

+$20.1

Record

53%

6100-5351 (11451)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.