Will Pau Cubarsi finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 64¢ · $588 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes37¢No63¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$588.4

Combined PnL

$34.91

Smart Money Entry

66.2¢ → 63.5¢

-4% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes37%

No64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$513.07

Total Shares670

Combined PnL+$56.11

Yes2 traders

Total Value$75.33

Total Shares301

Combined PnL-$21.2

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TimeTraveler	Noavg 64.8¢	$295.9	$260.37	+$43.97	41% 1905-2686 (4591)
Socialista	Noavg 67.9¢	$611.45	$227.7	+$12.14	62% 2425-1465 (3890)
85 0x852e...ca77CTR<$100	Yesavg 32.1¢	$95.59	$74.47	-$21.13	—
AJ AJSV<$100	Noavg 66¢	$25	$25	+$0	36% 13468-23476 (36944)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$0.93	$0.86	-$0.07	56% 10500-8289 (18789)

TimeTraveler

Invested

$295.9

Value

$260.37

PnL

+$43.97

Record

41%

1905-2686 (4591)

Socialista

Invested

$611.45

Value

$227.7

PnL

+$12.14

Record

62%

2425-1465 (3890)

0x852e...ca77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$95.59

Value

$74.47

PnL

-$21.13

Record

—

AJSV<$100

Invested

$25

Value

$25

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

13468-23476 (36944)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.93

Value

$0.86

PnL

-$0.07

Record

56%

10500-8289 (18789)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.