Will Patrick Brown win the 2026 Brampton mayoral election?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 27

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$58.74

Smart Money Entry

91.2¢ → 99.5¢

+9% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,341

Combined PnL+$56.07

No2 traders

Total Value$6.22

Total Shares124

Combined PnL+$2.67

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnapElectionAvoider	Yesavg 88.8¢	$785.7	$835.26	+$56.09	53% 1058-951 (2009)
mrworldwide	Yesavg 92.8¢	$255.03	$244.7	+$7.89	69% 761-349 (1110)
themagicofcinema	Yesavg 99.9¢	$200.07	$192.16	-$7.91	66% 380-198 (578)
NadmiCTR<$100	Noavg 3¢	$2.22	$4.19	+$0.74	47% 2024-2240 (4264)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 0.2¢	$0.1	$2.03	+$1.93	62% 20216-12621 (32837)

SnapElectionAvoider

Yes

Invested

$785.7

Value

$835.26

PnL

+$56.09

Record

53%

1058-951 (2009)

mrworldwide

Yes

Invested

$255.03

Value

$244.7

PnL

+$7.89

Record

69%

761-349 (1110)

themagicofcinema

Yes

Invested

$200.07

Value

$192.16

PnL

-$7.91

Record

66%

380-198 (578)

NadmiCTR<$100

Invested

$2.22

Value

$4.19

PnL

+$0.74

Record

47%

2024-2240 (4264)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$0.1

Value

$2.03

PnL

+$1.93

Record

62%

20216-12621 (32837)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.