Will Ousmane Dembélé finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (20%) · Yes at 96¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes96¢No4¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 20%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

-$113.24

Research grade

NeutralYes at 96%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes96%

No4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,511

Combined PnL+$97.46

No4 traders

Total Value$86.65

Total Shares1,607

Combined PnL-$210.7

Yes — 20%No — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO nonkenny90	Yesavg 91.9¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$97.46	89% 4385-538 (4923)
SocialistaCTR	Noavg 20.7¢	$275.75	$53.81	-$212.14	63% 2558-1517 (4075)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100	Noavg 7.7¢	$28.6	$31.34	+$3.79	41% 1915-2708 (4623)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 11.1¢	$3.39	$1.28	-$2.11	57% 12146-9242 (21388)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 9.1¢	$0.46	$0.21	-$0.25	62% 18410-11080 (29490)

nonkenny90

Yes

Invested

$2,308.33

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$97.46

Record

89%

4385-538 (4923)

SocialistaCTR

Invested

$275.75

Value

$53.81

PnL

-$212.14

Record

63%

2558-1517 (4075)

TimeTravelerCTR<$100

Invested

$28.6

Value

$31.34

PnL

+$3.79

Record

41%

1915-2708 (4623)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$3.39

Value

$1.28

PnL

-$2.11

Record

57%

12146-9242 (21388)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$0.46

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$0.25

Record

62%

18410-11080 (29490)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 96%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.8%

95.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.