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Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No

Will Ousmane Dembélé finish 4th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Resolved No. 44% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

9

No 67%

Total Value

$208.98

Combined PnL

$3.23

Smart Money Signal

No

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$208.98

Total Shares209

Combined PnL+$4.15

Yes5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares71

Combined PnL-$0.92

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Rex416	Noavg 96.3¢	$108.02	$108.02	+$3.95	57% 2474-1837 (4311)
0X 0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907e	Noavg 99.8¢	$100.01	$100.01	+$0.2	82% 228-50 (278)
ZX zxc368<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$0.95	$0.95	+$0	99% 12524-178 (12702)
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.3¢	$0.92	—	-$0.92	54% 302-257 (559)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 95.8¢	—	—	+$0	62% 20216-12621 (32837)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yes	—	—	+$0	45% 2698-3242 (5940)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	—	—	+$0	53% 6127-5381 (11508)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	—	—	+$0	41% 1925-2728 (4653)
IstarothCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	—	—	+$0	37% 273-472 (745)

Invested

$108.02

Value

$108.02

PnL

+$3.95

Record

57%

2474-1837 (4311)

0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907e

Invested

$100.01

Value

$100.01

PnL

+$0.2

Record

82%

228-50 (278)

Invested

$0.95

Value

$0.95

PnL

+$0

Record

99%

12524-178 (12702)

0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100

Invested

$0.92

Value

—

PnL

-$0.92

Record

54%

302-257 (559)

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

62%

20216-12621 (32837)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

45%

2698-3242 (5940)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

6127-5381 (11508)

TimeTravelerCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

41%

1925-2728 (4653)

IstarothCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

273-472 (745)

Smart Money Signal

No

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x996a4cfa...554254

Slug

will-ousmane-dembele-finish-4th-in-the-2026-ballon-d-or-20261019193417541

Traders in this Market

Rex416

No — $108.02

0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907e

No — $100.01

zxc368

No — $0.95

0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438

Yes — $0

balthazar

No — $0

Bigggggggg

Yes — $0

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Yes — $0

TimeTraveler

Yes — $0

Istaroth

Yes — $0

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