Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (97%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Ousmane Dembélé finish 3rd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 3.4¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$420.88

Smart Money Entry

2.4¢ → 3.4¢

+41% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 97%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares23,369

Combined PnL+$420.88

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazarCTR	Yesavg 2.7¢	$53.18	$1.5K	+$212.84	62% 19071-11688 (30759)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR	Yesavg 0.6¢	$12.45	$153.87	+$141.41	32% 3992-8471 (12463)
NI niceqqqqq3CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$2.52	$61.16	+$58.63	54% 14-12 (26)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$8.3	$17.75	+$7.7	53% 5862-5130 (10992)
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$0.12	$0.43	+$0.31	56% 300-232 (532)

balthazarCTR

Yes

Invested

$53.18

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$212.84

Record

62%

19071-11688 (30759)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR

Yes

Invested

$12.45

Value

$153.87

PnL

+$141.41

Record

32%

3992-8471 (12463)

niceqqqqq3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.52

Value

$61.16

PnL

+$58.63

Record

54%

14-12 (26)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.3

Value

$17.75

PnL

+$7.7

Record

53%

5862-5130 (10992)

0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.12

Value

$0.43

PnL

+$0.31

Record

56%

300-232 (532)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 97%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance4.6%

3.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2093.93

Max Loss

-$100.00

2193.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.