Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Ousmane Dembélé finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $3 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$3.13
-$37.25
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Mature
46h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $18.85 | $1.62 | -$17.23 | 36% 2237-3925 (6162) |
NI niceqqqqq3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $8.99 | $0.76 | -$8.23 | 52% 13-12 (25) |
 sciuboiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $8.18 | $0.65 | -$7.53 | 48% 177-192 (369) |
 Rex416CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $3.35 | $0.09 | -$3.26 | 57% 2243-1706 (3949) |
KL klli27CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $1.02 | $0.03 | -$0.99 | 33% 234-465 (699) |
Invested
$18.85
Value
$1.62
PnL
-$17.23
Record
36%
2237-3925 (6162)
Invested
$8.99
Value
$0.76
PnL
-$8.23
Record
52%
13-12 (25)
sciuboiCTR<$100Invested
$8.18
Value
$0.65
PnL
-$7.53
Record
48%
177-192 (369)
Rex416CTR<$100Invested
$3.35
Value
$0.09
PnL
-$3.26
Record
57%
2243-1706 (3949)
Invested
$1.02
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$0.99
Record
33%
234-465 (699)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.