Will Otzma Yehudit win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 94¢ · $285 held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
2
No 100%
$285.46
$1.36
91.8¢ → 94.1¢
+3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 2B9S | Noavg 91.8¢ | $220.38 | $219.12 | -$1.26 | 18% 3414-15601 (19015) |
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100 | Noavg 91.6¢ | $63.73 | $66.34 | +$2.62 | 47% 68-78 (146) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.