Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 98¢ · $4K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$4.5K
$64.52
85.3¢ → 97.6¢
+14% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 elmcap2 | Noavg 85.5¢ | $3.4K | $3.9K | +$403.91 | 89% 1643-202 (1845) |
TH TheReturnOfDarthMaul | Noavg 83¢ | $345.01 | $397.6 | +$52.58 | 63% 349-201 (550) |
 occasionalAwarenessCTR | Yesavg 12¢ | $523 | $124.28 | -$398.72 | 52% 284-262 (546) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $5.25 | $12 | +$6.75 | 47% 2024-2241 (4265) |
elmcap2Invested
$3,435.44
Value
$3.9K
PnL
+$403.91
Record
89%
1643-202 (1845)
Invested
$345.01
Value
$397.6
PnL
+$52.58
Record
63%
349-201 (550)
occasionalAwarenessCTRInvested
$523
Value
$124.28
PnL
-$398.72
Record
52%
284-262 (546)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$5.25
Value
$12
PnL
+$6.75
Record
47%
2024-2241 (4265)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.