Will OpenAI’s valuation be at least $1.30T at the end of November 2026?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 67¢ · $414 held · ends Nov 30

Yes67¢No33¢Ends Mon, Nov 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$414.07

Combined PnL

-$43.79

Research grade

NeutralYes at 67%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes67%

No34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$90.46

Total Shares122

Combined PnL+$26.1

No2 traders

Total Value$63.61

Total Shares318

Combined PnL-$69.89

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IstarothARB<$100	Yesavg 54.1¢	$340.77	$260	-$27.49	49% 269-278 (547)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 54.1¢	$140.66	$167.7	+$6.83
└ No leg	Noavg 44.6¢	$116.01	$92.3	-$34.31
2B9S<$100	Yesavg 44.7¢	$35.8	$64	+$28.2	18% 3414-15601 (19015)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR	Noavg 49.8¢	$224.54	$40	-$48.6	57% 14880-11255 (26135)
vinii<$100	Yesavg 63¢	$26.46	$26.46	-$2.1	74% 2525-901 (3426)
KimchiCapitalCTR<$100	Noavg 59.5¢	$44.9	$23.61	-$21.29	73% 392-143 (535)

IstarothARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$340.77

Value

$260

PnL

-$27.49

Record

49%

269-278 (547)

Both legs:

Yes$140.6654.1¢+$6.83

No$116.0144.6¢-$34.31

2B9S<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.8

Value

$64

PnL

+$28.2

Record

18%

3414-15601 (19015)

ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR

Invested

$224.54

Value

$40

PnL

-$48.6

Record

57%

14880-11255 (26135)

vinii<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.46

Value

$26.46

PnL

-$2.1

Record

74%

2525-901 (3426)

KimchiCapitalCTR<$100

Invested

$44.9

Value

$23.61

PnL

-$21.29

Record

73%

392-143 (535)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 67%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.4%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$46.25

Max Loss

-$100.00

146.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.