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Hannah-MontanaCTRYes
balthazar<$100NoNoNoNoYesYes
IstarothCTR<$100YesYes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?
Resolved No. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
9
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$989.06
Smart Money Signal
Yes
5 of 9 top traders (56%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes5 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares1,588
Combined PnL-$989.06
No4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 56%No — 44%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hannah-MontanaCTR | Yesavg 52.1¢ | $932.25 | — | -$989.06 | 67% 185-92 (277) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 43.5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 63% 15568-9006 (24574) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Noavg 46.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 42% 4992-6879 (11871) |
KO korda77<$100 | Noavg 62.7¢ | — | — | +$0 | 54% 3034-2587 (5621) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 67.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 54% 4556-3891 (8447) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Yesavg 51.7¢ | — | — | +$0 | 52% 4923-4529 (9452) |
ME merodCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 56% 1708-1323 (3031) |
IstarothCTR<$100 | Yesavg 48.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 49% 269-276 (545) |
AJ AJSVCTR<$100 | Yesavg 34.4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 36% 13604-23855 (37459) |
Hannah-MontanaCTRInvested
$932.25
Value
—
PnL
-$989.06
Record
67%
185-92 (277)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
63%
15568-9006 (24574)
LI
lissartter<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
42%
4992-6879 (11871)
KO
korda77<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
3034-2587 (5621)
CB
Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
4556-3891 (8447)
RL
RLWGCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
4923-4529 (9452)
ME
merodCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
1708-1323 (3031)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
269-276 (545)
AJ
AJSVCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
13604-23855 (37459)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x22c1080f...f27aeb
Slug
will-openai-have-the-second-highest-openrouter-market-share-the-week-of-october-19