Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 96¢ · $5K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

$323.63

Smart Money Entry

89.7¢ → 96.2¢

+7% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares5,222

Combined PnL+$328.42

Yes2 traders

Total Value$54.02

Total Shares1,403

Combined PnL-$4.79

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
tourists	Noavg 89.1¢	$4.2K	$4.5K	+$325.67	66% 426-220 (646)
Tenebrus7	Noavg 95.4¢	$477	$480.75	+$2.75	73% 2899-1056 (3955)
CarCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$44.87	$38.5	-$4.37	67% 4125-1996 (6121)
Contentious-DinnerdateCTR<$100	Yesavg 15.4¢	$15.94	$15.52	-$0.42	50% 388-392 (780)

tourists

Invested

$4,205.09

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$325.67

Record

66%

426-220 (646)

Tenebrus7

Invested

$477

Value

$480.75

PnL

+$2.75

Record

73%

2899-1056 (3955)

CarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.87

Value

$38.5

PnL

-$4.37

Record

67%

4125-1996 (6121)

Contentious-DinnerdateCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.94

Value

$15.52

PnL

-$0.42

Record

50%

388-392 (780)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.3%

96.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.