Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (69%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 31¢ · $679 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
1 arb excluded
$678.56
-$9.08
31.5¢ → 30.6¢
-3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 31%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 68.3¢ | $389.94 | $259.2 | -$1.94 | 49% 269-276 (545) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 68.3¢ | $176.95 | $178.59 | +$0.09 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 31.9¢ | $82.64 | $80.6 | -$2.03 | |
 balthazarCTR | Yesavg 31.5¢ | $227.94 | $224.75 | -$3.19 | 63% 16296-9616 (25912) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR | Yesavg 31.8¢ | $317.99 | $113.58 | -$7 | 57% 14921-11305 (26226) |
 ScottyNooo<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $69 | $68.9 | +$0.5 | 51% 1526-1494 (3020) |
SQ SquirrelTheMerchantCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29¢ | $11.31 | $12.13 | +$0.6 | 55% 70-58 (128) |
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$389.94
Value
$259.2
PnL
-$1.94
Record
49%
269-276 (545)
Both legs:
balthazarCTRInvested
$227.94
Value
$224.75
PnL
-$3.19
Record
63%
16296-9616 (25912)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTRInvested
$317.99
Value
$113.58
PnL
-$7
Record
57%
14921-11305 (26226)
ScottyNooo<$100Invested
$69
Value
$68.9
PnL
+$0.5
Record
51%
1526-1494 (3020)
Invested
$11.31
Value
$12.13
PnL
+$0.6
Record
55%
70-58 (128)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
30.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.