Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (86%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Ohio State Buckeyes win the 2027 CFP National Championship?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 14¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 26, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$3.2K
$2.3K
13¢ → 14.5¢
+12% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 14%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 86%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Late
545h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
25 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI milkteabobaCTR | Yesavg 14.3¢ | $135.5 | $2.3K | +$2.0K | 63% 22-13 (35) |
 TimeTravelerCTR | Yesavg 13.7¢ | $409.5 | $450 | +$25.54 | 42% 1892-2666 (4558) |
CO cowcatCTR | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $17.04 | $269.27 | +$252.23 | 58% 1447-1037 (2484) |
 Nooserac | Noavg 85.7¢ | $177.32 | $176.81 | -$0.51 | 52% 5309-4883 (10192) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17.2¢ | $13.77 | $27.38 | +$11.75 | 56% 9249-7400 (16649) |
Invested
$135.5
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$2.0K
Record
63%
22-13 (35)
TimeTravelerCTRInvested
$409.5
Value
$450
PnL
+$25.54
Record
42%
1892-2666 (4558)
Invested
$17.04
Value
$269.27
PnL
+$252.23
Record
58%
1447-1037 (2484)
NooseracInvested
$177.32
Value
$176.81
PnL
-$0.51
Record
52%
5309-4883 (10192)
Invested
$13.77
Value
$27.38
PnL
+$11.75
Record
56%
9249-7400 (16649)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
14.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.