Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 97¢ · $12K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$12.2K
-$11.31
93.4¢ → 96.7¢
+3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Late
569h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616 | No | $5.8K | $5.8K | +$127 | 21% 306-1159 (1465) |
 Debosnys | Noavg 93.1¢ | $8.5K | $5.5K | +$174.22 | 89% 1814-224 (2038) |
AV aviato | Noavg 96.2¢ | $696.99 | $696.99 | -$0 | 85% 2380-404 (2784) |
LI lissartterCTR | Yesavg 10¢ | $449.89 | $150.72 | -$299.17 | 42% 4984-6865 (11849) |
 ScottyNoooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.1¢ | $66.66 | $46.2 | -$13.36 | 51% 1526-1494 (3020) |
Invested
$5,817.38
Value
$5.8K
PnL
+$127
Record
21%
306-1159 (1465)
DebosnysInvested
$8,523.26
Value
$5.5K
PnL
+$174.22
Record
89%
1814-224 (2038)
Invested
$696.99
Value
$696.99
PnL
-$0
Record
85%
2380-404 (2784)
Invested
$449.89
Value
$150.72
PnL
-$299.17
Record
42%
4984-6865 (11849)
ScottyNoooCTR<$100Invested
$66.66
Value
$46.2
PnL
-$13.36
Record
51%
1526-1494 (3020)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.