Will Obafemi Hamzat win the 2027 Lagos State gubernatorial election?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 82¢ · $1K held · ends Feb 7, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$1.2K
$57.21
80.5¢ → 81.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 82%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Late
1372h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Yesavg 80.3¢ | $544.75 | $553.12 | +$8.37 | 53% 1051-947 (1998) |
 FrozenParasite | Yesavg 78¢ | $30.58 | $313.78 | +$34.51 | 55% 435-352 (787) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Yesavg 86¢ | $172 | $163 | -$9 | 57% 15129-11560 (26689) |
 RememberAmalekCTR | Noavg 16.4¢ | $122.7 | $138.77 | +$16.07 | 56% 954-753 (1707) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Noavg 4¢ | $2.01 | $9.28 | +$7.27 | 48% 2023-2229 (4252) |
Invested
$544.75
Value
$553.12
PnL
+$8.37
Record
53%
1051-947 (1998)
FrozenParasiteInvested
$30.58
Value
$313.78
PnL
+$34.51
Record
55%
435-352 (787)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$172
Value
$163
PnL
-$9
Record
57%
15129-11560 (26689)
RememberAmalekCTRInvested
$122.7
Value
$138.77
PnL
+$16.07
Record
56%
954-753 (1707)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$2.01
Value
$9.28
PnL
+$7.27
Record
48%
2023-2229 (4252)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.