Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 80¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$1.6K
$29.28
79.6¢ → 80.3¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 80%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HA HauchnCTR | Yesavg 15.3¢ | $590.44 | $751.35 | +$170.28 | 38% 58-96 (154) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73 | Noavg 80.3¢ | $780.91 | $655.53 | -$125.38 | 51% 107-104 (211) |
AJ AJSV | Noavg 81.2¢ | $129.18 | $113.37 | -$15.81 | 36% 12936-22654 (35590) |
 GenaTheBondKilIer<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $51.92 | $48.85 | +$0.2 | 50% 500-498 (998) |
Invested
$590.44
Value
$751.35
PnL
+$170.28
Record
38%
58-96 (154)
Invested
$780.91
Value
$655.53
PnL
-$125.38
Record
51%
107-104 (211)
Invested
$129.18
Value
$113.37
PnL
-$15.81
Record
36%
12936-22654 (35590)
GenaTheBondKilIer<$100Invested
$51.92
Value
$48.85
PnL
+$0.2
Record
50%
500-498 (998)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.