Will none of these coins hit a $1B FDV?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 92¢ · $4K held · ends Dec 26
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$3.9K
$2.68
86.9¢ → 91.5¢
+5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 92%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 alanhutton | Yesavg 87.9¢ | $2.6K | $2.7K | +$96.78 | 68% 318-149 (467) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Yesavg 84.2¢ | $819.82 | $889.49 | +$69.67 | 57% 15181-11609 (26790) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Yesavg 85.2¢ | $192.45 | $194.62 | +$14.07 | 77% 11023-3363 (14386) |
 PaddyAlphaCTR | Noavg 27.5¢ | $278.75 | $76.93 | -$177.84 | 60% 976-656 (1632) |
alanhuttonInvested
$2,647.96
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$96.78
Record
68%
318-149 (467)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$819.82
Value
$889.49
PnL
+$69.67
Record
57%
15181-11609 (26790)
Invested
$192.45
Value
$194.62
PnL
+$14.07
Record
77%
11023-3363 (14386)
PaddyAlphaCTRInvested
$278.75
Value
$76.93
PnL
-$177.84
Record
60%
976-656 (1632)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.