Will no next Israeli Minister of Defense be appointed by February 28, 2027?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 59¢ · $5K held · ends Mar 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
1 arb excluded
$4.6K
-$2.13
61.9¢ → 58.7¢
-5% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 59%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 63¢ | $4.4K | $4.2K | -$75.95 | 52% 269-246 (515) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 63¢ | $2.6K | $2.5K | -$182.68 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 38.6¢ | $1.6K | $1.7K | +$106.73 | |
HE HerrieDavis | Noavg 62.1¢ | $197.27 | $185.68 | -$10.62 | 47% 1733-1932 (3665) |
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR | Yesavg 36.4¢ | $143.44 | $162.57 | +$19.13 | 40% 1738-2653 (4391) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 61.4¢ | $744.79 | $72.92 | -$10.64 | 56% 3416-2671 (6087) |
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$4,356.88
Value
$4.2K
PnL
-$75.95
Record
52%
269-246 (515)
Both legs:
Invested
$197.27
Value
$185.68
PnL
-$10.62
Record
47%
1733-1932 (3665)
Invested
$143.44
Value
$162.57
PnL
+$19.13
Record
40%
1738-2653 (4391)
Invested
$744.79
Value
$72.92
PnL
-$10.64
Record
56%
3416-2671 (6087)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.