Will Neil Morton win the 2026 Peterborough mayoral election?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 99¢ · $532 held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$531.98
$320.71
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 2B9S | Noavg 14.7¢ | $47 | $296.7 | +$176.3 | 18% 3740-16589 (20329) |
 Gohst | Noavg 12¢ | $25.38 | $209.19 | +$124.79 | 49% 728-759 (1487) |
 EsperanzasDESTROYERCTR | Yesavg 21.3¢ | $176.43 | $16.59 | +$19.62 | 55% 42-34 (76) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $9.5 | $9.5 | +$0 | 52% 2373-2161 (4534) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.