Will Nashville SC win the 2026 MLS Cup?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 83¢ · $546 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$546.37
-$46.43
89.8¢ → 82.5¢
-8% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 83%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hedgevaultmainnet1 | Noavg 91.5¢ | $436.3 | $383.62 | -$52.68 | 53% 1900-1661 (3561) |
 TimeTravelerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.3¢ | $82.07 | $88.1 | +$6.03 | 41% 1893-2672 (4565) |
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $14.29 | $41.65 | -$0.73 | 47% 113-130 (243) |
 probability<$100 | Noavg 80.1¢ | $32.04 | $33 | +$0.96 | 42% 1236-1679 (2915) |
Invested
$436.3
Value
$383.62
PnL
-$52.68
Record
53%
1900-1661 (3561)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100Invested
$82.07
Value
$88.1
PnL
+$6.03
Record
41%
1893-2672 (4565)
Invested
$14.29
Value
$41.65
PnL
-$0.73
Record
47%
113-130 (243)
probability<$100Invested
$32.04
Value
$33
PnL
+$0.96
Record
42%
1236-1679 (2915)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.