Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 97¢ · $4K held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$4.2K
$273.84
90¢ → 97.2¢
+8% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH thoodr | Noavg 92.1¢ | $2.6K | $2.7K | +$143.6 | 96% 597-23 (620) |
 libratus1 | Noavg 85.6¢ | $1.1K | $1.3K | +$155.19 | 63% 639-368 (1007) |
 tja<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $91 | $97.2 | +$6.2 | 73% 862-321 (1183) |
 aenews2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $58.42 | $27.26 | -$31.16 | 60% 1758-1158 (2916) |
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.