Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 70¢ · $827 held · ends Dec 31

Yes30¢No70¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$827.12

Combined PnL

$70.49

Smart Money Entry

67.1¢ → 70¢

+4% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 70%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes30%

No70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$359.76

Total Shares1,161

Combined PnL+$91.1

No2 traders

Total Value$467.36

Total Shares668

Combined PnL-$20.62

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
smellyEllieCTR	Yesavg 30.3¢	$242.66	$328.76	+$86.1	50% 860-869 (1729)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Noavg 70.5¢	$314	$280.01	-$34	57% 14667-11017 (25684)
88 881112	Noavg 62¢	$165.94	$187.35	+$13.38	37% 543-906 (1449)
SB sbimbgCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$28	$31	+$5	64% 2141-1207 (3348)

smellyEllieCTR

Yes

Invested

$242.66

Value

$328.76

PnL

+$86.1

Record

50%

860-869 (1729)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Invested

$314

Value

$280.01

PnL

-$34

Record

57%

14667-11017 (25684)

881112

Invested

$165.94

Value

$187.35

PnL

+$13.38

Record

37%

543-906 (1449)

sbimbgCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28

Value

$31

PnL

+$5

Record

64%

2141-1207 (3348)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 70%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.0%

70.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$40.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

140.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.