Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 75¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 1, 2029
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$2.5K
-$218.98
70.6¢ → 74.5¢
+6% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 75%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Late
528h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 68.5¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | -$9.5 | 57% 14640-10985 (25625) |
 ScottyNooo | Noavg 74.4¢ | $396.42 | $397.09 | +$0.67 | 51% 1524-1493 (3017) |
 DebosnysCTR | Yesavg 41.9¢ | $557.58 | $339.12 | -$218.46 | 89% 1812-224 (2036) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 77¢ | $240.29 | $232.48 | -$7.8 | 80% 10079-2570 (12649) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR | Yesavg 22¢ | $101.24 | $117.35 | +$16.11 | 56% 3177-2515 (5692) |
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$1,425
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$9.5
Record
57%
14640-10985 (25625)
ScottyNoooInvested
$396.42
Value
$397.09
PnL
+$0.67
Record
51%
1524-1493 (3017)
DebosnysCTRInvested
$557.58
Value
$339.12
PnL
-$218.46
Record
89%
1812-224 (2036)
Invested
$240.29
Value
$232.48
PnL
-$7.8
Record
80%
10079-2570 (12649)
Invested
$101.24
Value
$117.35
PnL
+$16.11
Record
56%
3177-2515 (5692)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.