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No
archaicCTRYesYesYes
2B9SCTR<$100Yes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will Miroslav Heredoš win the 2026 Bratislava mayoral election?
Resolved No. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Yes 75%
Total Value
$25.27
Combined PnL
$6.77
Smart Money Signal
Yes
4 of 5 top traders (80%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No1 trader
Total Value$25.27
Total Shares25
Combined PnL+$0.03
Yes4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares161
Combined PnL+$6.74
No — 20%Yes — 80%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $25.24 | $25.27 | +$0.03 | 80% 10154-2597 (12751) |
archaicCTR | Yesavg 1.3¢ | $147.41 | $0 | +$13.34 | 84% 1808-333 (2141) |
ME merodCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 55% 1467-1219 (2686) |
AJ AJSVCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.7¢ | $4 | — | -$4 | 36% 12921-22626 (35547) |
2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.5¢ | $2.6 | — | -$2.6 | 17% 3134-14844 (17978) |
EL
Elias.Thornwell<$100Invested
$25.24
Value
$25.27
PnL
+$0.03
Record
80%
10154-2597 (12751)
archaicCTRInvested
$147.41
Value
$0
PnL
+$13.34
Record
84%
1808-333 (2141)
ME
merodCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
1467-1219 (2686)
AJ
AJSVCTR<$100Invested
$4
Value
—
PnL
-$4
Record
36%
12921-22626 (35547)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$2.6
Value
—
PnL
-$2.6
Record
17%
3134-14844 (17978)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xbee08b92...2e33d6
Slug
will-miroslav-heredos-win-the-2026-bratislava-mayoral-election