Will MiniMax be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of November 2026?

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 96¢ · $94 held · ends Dec 1

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 83%

Total Value

$94

Combined PnL

-$1.23

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$93.11

Total Shares94

Combined PnL-$0.19

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.5

Total Shares53

Combined PnL-$1.03

No — 83%Yes — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AL alex20011<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$19.92	$19.81	-$0.11	48% 3101-3334 (6435)
PO pollo07<$100	Noavg 99¢	$19.8	$19.81	+$0.01	34% 273-519 (792)
AK akroll<$100	Noavg 99¢	$19.8	$19.81	+$0.01	35% 269-495 (764)
KL klli27<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$19.92	$19.81	-$0.11	34% 243-478 (721)
KA kaxel78<$100	Noavg 99¢	$13.86	$13.87	+$0.01	35% 218-411 (629)
AJ AJSVCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$1.54	$0.5	-$1.03	36% 13723-24173 (37896)

alex20011<$100

Invested

$19.92

Value

$19.81

PnL

-$0.11

Record

48%

3101-3334 (6435)

pollo07<$100

Invested

$19.8

Value

$19.81

PnL

+$0.01

Record

34%

273-519 (792)

akroll<$100

Invested

$19.8

Value

$19.81

PnL

+$0.01

Record

35%

269-495 (764)

klli27<$100

Invested

$19.92

Value

$19.81

PnL

-$0.11

Record

34%

243-478 (721)

kaxel78<$100

Invested

$13.86

Value

$13.87

PnL

+$0.01

Record

35%

218-411 (629)

AJSVCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.54

Value

$0.5

PnL

-$1.03

Record

36%

13723-24173 (37896)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.0%

95.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.07

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.