Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (83%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Miloš Vučević win the next Serbia presidential election?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 17¢ · $340 held · ends May 2, 2027

Yes17¢No83¢Ends Sun, May 2, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$339.96

Combined PnL

$120.09

Smart Money Entry

16.1¢ → 17¢

+5% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 17%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes17%

No83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$214.28

Total Shares847

Combined PnL+$92.8

No2 traders

Total Value$125.67

Total Shares168

Combined PnL+$27.29

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE HerrieDavisCTR	Yesavg 13.9¢	$54.54	$120.54	+$66	47% 1717-1922 (3639)
VS vsdiz1337CTR<$100	Yesavg 19.2¢	$66.94	$93.75	+$26.8	— 1-11 (12)
probability	Noavg 80.4¢	$135.49	$68.08	+$23.02	42% 1224-1668 (2892)
BI BikesAreTheBikes<$100	Noavg 67.3¢	$53.33	$57.6	+$4.27	40% 1736-2647 (4383)

HerrieDavisCTR

Yes

Invested

$54.54

Value

$120.54

PnL

+$66

Record

47%

1717-1922 (3639)

vsdiz1337CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$66.94

Value

$93.75

PnL

+$26.8

Record

—

1-11 (12)

probability

Invested

$135.49

Value

$68.08

PnL

+$23.02

Record

42%

1224-1668 (2892)

BikesAreTheBikes<$100

Invested

$53.33

Value

$57.6

PnL

+$4.27

Record

40%

1736-2647 (4383)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 17%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance18.5%

16.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$439.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

539.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.